1. 14:45 21st Oct 2008

    comments:

    Among Democrats, Barack Obama is now winning 88 percent support, comparable to John Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000. And there are a couple of points’ worth of undecideds left in there, so it’s possible that Obama could scrape up against the 90 percent number on election day. By contrast, John McCain is winning the support of just 85.3 percent of Republicans, well down from Bush’s 93 percent in 2004 and 91 percent in 2000. There are some undecideds in there as well, so his numbers should improve some, but McCain is likely to underperform Bush by several points.
    — 

    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead

    Support within own party:

    Pollster         DEMS    GOP
    Rasmussen      86      87
    IBD-TIPP          88      83
    Research 2000 87      89
    ABC/Post         91      84
    Zogby              87      84
    Battleground    89      85
    AVERAGE         88.0   85.3
    2004 Exit Poll  89      93
    2000 Exit Poll  86      91

     
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